Nag WXMAN about the weather thread

[ixl]

WX, any concern about wind with the rain this weekend? Doesn't seem like it but...

And what's with what looks like a secondary storm on the h84 NAM? Is it going to rain Tuesday too?

Thank ye.

[ixl]

Monday definitely looking bad on the NAM this morning. Maybe Tuesday as well.

[WXMAN76]

Hey IXL,

sorry i didn't get to the thread sooner. Last night I was visiting friends, and this morning I was getting some needed work done on the car in preparation of making the trip to New England. My personal opinion is the NAM sucks beyond 48 hours. It seems to have a convective feedback issue. So I looked at this mornings GFS and Euro as well.

A few things are going on making this a little complicated. Low pressure drives up the coast Saturday into Sunday dragging a cold front through early Monday, as the upper level low pulls away. But instead of leaving in tact, the trough splits in two. the remainder of that trough rides the stalled front over the Northern Mid Atlantic Tuesday. The bulk of the rain on Sun/Mon looks east of the White mountains. I don;t think the rain will really impact foliage much. Monday looks crappy but I can see it turning better as the dry slot may come through Monday post frontal passage. Tuesday looks gloomy as the wave passes to the south but I think the bulk of the precipitation falls South of the Mass Pike. Neither day looks like a washout to me, just not bright and sunny but that could be a good thing for photos. Right now Wednesday looks good. A weak front comes through Thursday. some clouds and a few showers but mainly dry. Fair weather returns on Friday though Columbus day with gradual cooling. GFS still hinting at possible snow Tuesday the 9th. Something to keep an eye on.

[ixl]

Hey thanks WX, and no need to apologize.

I think based on this and a couple of other personal issues I may just wait until Tuesday. I've had bad experience with those cut-off-low-things hanging around longer than expected...

What of the possibility of a storm next weekend? I know the GFS is playing one up and the GFS is what it is.. I'm trying to learn how to read the ECMWF but haven't found a good site for it with maps I can actually understand. Any ideas?

[WXMAN76]

Next weekend I am not sure if it a storm or just a strong cold front. Timing these things are tough as you reported earlier these cut offs can be pesky. WE get very limited data from the Euro and it is hard to read I agree. I just use the ECMWF homepage. you have to do some guessing as you only get 500mb heights and surface pressures so you need some knowledge to fill in the gaps. Tuesday into Wednesday are going to be a close call as the remnants of TS Mariam moves overhead (in Texas tonight) But I am still thinking it may be murky but still think the worst of the rain runs from Rutland to White River to Lincoln NH to Fryeberg Maine and points South and East. Could be cloudy Tue & Wednesday but not a lot of rain especially in the NEK Beyond Wedensday a progressive flow takes over with weak mainly dry disturbances coming through. There may be a wave on the cold front but it should stay south. Basically first half of the week features clouds but not much rain Second half Clouds and sun mainly dry. Perhaps a round of clouds and showers late in the weekend. My guess is while this isn't a sunny stretch by any means could be just cloudy and not that bad. BTW fairbanks museum ST.J puts on their webpage a forecast for all of VT. These guys are pretty good.

http://www.fairbanksmuseum.org/forecasts

[ixl]

Thanks. Heh, I had just loaded this thread a few minutes ago and wondered if you were still around.

I wish I could have back that "sunny all week" forecast from a few days ago, which I was complaining about. Should have kept my mouth shut.

Mostly concerned about the big storm you were talking about on the 9th coming through earlier... but then, well, it's the GFS.

[WXMAN76]

Once you get to the long range you can drive yourself just batty trying to time things. With the GFS I try to watch the long range beyond 10 days it actually does really well. Mid range 3-10 days it usually loses it's marbles, then in the short range it goes back to what it showed a week earlier. In progressive flow the GFS rules, in blocky and multi jet stream patterns the Euro outperforms. I am not liking the weather either next week as I will be up there too. But I really think it could be not as bad as it could be. I'm still in Florida tomorrow then 2 12 hour days sun/mon. should be fun!












yea

[ixl]

Have a good, safe trip WX.

I'm still thinking that front is coming through next weekend sometime. But maybe it will pull north.

With any luck some snow while I am still up north.

[orenphotography]

Alright WXMAN...I gotta ask - NEK on Oct 2nd or 3rd? Specifically, Island Pond area.
Was planning on driving up 10/1 and shooting 10/2 starting early. Long range forecast has me concerned and am leaning toward pushing by 1 day (luckily I've got the flexibility). Any thoughts?

[WXMAN76]

ixl

Thank you. yeah there will be a frontal passage next weekend, probably fri or saturday. If a wave develops and gets close by it would be closer to columbus day.

Oren,

Tuesday the NEK will have more of a northerly wind which is upslope so thinking it will be cloudy. High pressure will build in on Wednesday so I think Wednesday will be the brighter of the two days, but Tuesday may offer overcast and dry conditions so I guess it depends if u want the sun out or not. Also these things tend to move out more slowly than one hopes so I would hang my hat on Wednesday at this point.

[ixl]

Ugh, cloudy all week. :/ Oh well.

I'm not a big believer in the "cloudy weather is better for photography" theory personally.

[ixl]

The latest NAM is now showing something big and nasty growing to our SW at 84h. What do you think?

[WXMAN76]

That big and nasty is the remnants of Tropical storm Miriam which will pass through late tuesday or tuesday night and leave on wednesday. Definitely will keep clouds around but Tuesday should be mainly dry in the North. To me looks like the worst rain will be in southern New England. Thursday and Friday have promise of seeing sun. the next frontal passage will be later Friday or Saturday, with a band of clouds and showers. Sun-Tue looks mainly dry and should see some sun. Still some model differences this morning. Euro is faster with the Tuesday storm but shows dry and warm weather thu-fri. Gfs delays Miriam to Wednesday and is quicker with the frontal passage. I like The Euro personally. With a trough coming into the west we should see more ridging into the east.

For me it depends on the clouds. I have had some back luck when the clouds are thick and dark, but if they are high clouds it's fine.

[ixl]

Thanks again. I'll keep an eye on it.

I chose this particular time frame to go shoot because the moon is nearly full. If it's looking like clouds and rain all week, I may just delay my trip until later in the month and go somewhere else. I'd like to go north because the color is good but I'm just not adaptable enough to have fun if the weather sucks, lol.

[WXMAN76]

ixl,

Something tells me this just isn't going to be as bad it looks. For me I'll just pick a good day when it comes because we are not just going for foliage we are visiting friends and family as well, and bringing south some stuff we couldn't take on the last trip like our christmas stuff. of course I would prefer nice weather. It's going to come down to timing of these events day vs night and until that cut off low gets out of the way timing is going be changing run to run. In the long range the end of the week was looking dry and warm and it would not surprise me at all when all is said and done it reverts back to that, which the euro is hinting at.