Special guest this weekend....... Autumn!!

[WXMAN76]

As alluded to earlier in the month Autumn is going to make a guest appearance in New England later this weekend into next week.
Cool Canadian high pressure will be pushing southward into the US for the first time this season the next few days. Cool air will overtake the Northern Prairies, Great Lakes, and Northern Ohio Valley by Saturday.Highs Saturday may not reach out of the upper 60s in Northern Minnesota and the UP of Michigan! BRRRRR!!! East of the mountains the cold air will have trouble. A round of heavy storms is possible Saturday as the front approaches, but the front may stall Saturday night over or just south of Southern New England. This may delay the clearing across the region until Monday. Highs will only be in the 70s with lower humidity. Lows will stay near 60 in cities, 50's in the burbs and 40s across Northern New England. A few upper 30s may be possible by Tuesday morning in the coldest hollows of Northern New England. A second shot of refreshing air should follow later next week. We are not done with summer yet but a taste of the change of the seasons. I can smell the cider now!

Tropics update. The tropics continue slow as any storms that try to form fall apart. Nonetheless, with high pressure over the Eastern US next week, and an upper level trough sitting on the East Coast we will need to watcvh for in close development beyond day 7 for the End of the month and into the start of September but nothing in sight at the moment.

[ctyanky]

Thanks for the very uplifting weather report WXMAN! I'm ready!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I ordered a new fall welcome mat for my front door and it came today! To hell with the neighbors! It's out there! he he!!!! I'm waiting for Mother Nature to drop her annual red leaf on my doorstep when I'm not around..... so now she'll have a nice mat with different colored falling leaves on it. I beat her to it!

I have all my windows open and it is simply divine outside. Can't wait for this cooler weather for the weekend. I'm going to a craft fair on Saturday in MA and it's going to be in the 70's. Praying for no rain of course

[WXMAN76]

Well I hope it doesn't rain on your parade, uh craft fair Saturday CT. Most of the rain should be in the early morning. Cloudy but drier later in the day Saturday. The only way down here in Florida I can tell fall is coming is all the school supplies in Wally World, and the kids go back to school Aug 21. Fall is the one season I will really miss in Florida. i will not miss winter at all! LOL. I still hope to be up the first week of October, but money will be the key factor of course. and since you will be up in VT I know to forecast plenty of rain and bring my goulashes and umbrellas, I can leave the moose repellant at home. LMAO!

[deaner1971]

Insane weather! My fantasy football guys weekend is this weekend and it is always miserably hot. This year? High of about 71.

Taking advantage to completely reseed the lawn (it is an abosolute nightmare after the heat and drought). That means almost certainly we will return to overn-like temps and no rain the minute I see the seed sprouting...

[Andy]

We had drought conditions early, but have had a lot of rain in late July/early August, here in the part of MI where I live. Wish we could spread some of it around, including the 6-7 inches of rain last Thurs - Saturday. I think we are back to normal rainfall amounts and I am told the same is true of the UP.

[deaner1971]

We had drought conditions early, but have had a lot of rain in late July/early August, here in the part of MI where I live. Wish we could spread some of it around, including the 6-7 inches of rain last Thurs - Saturday. I think we are back to normal rainfall amounts and I am told the same is true of the UP.

Andy, your stuff keeps going out across Lake Erie and on to the Northeast. Can't you push more of it this way?

Also just added three trees, two large flowering bushes and a grape vine to the landscaping - thereby further ensuring no rain and a harsh winter. Sorry all.

[Utah Baker]

I am sooo envious of all this talk of cooler weather, we have been stuck in the mid 90's for another week, and only cooling to 70 At night. I long to be able to open my windows at night to a cool breeze! Is it September yet!

[WXMAN76]

Utah, you're not alone. No relief here in Florida either! Well thank you all for your comments. Deaner, you may be a better forecaster than me! LOL. Although I can personally take credit for the lack of snow last winter in New England. I bought a snowblower! ROFL. Of course my luck it will snow here this winter. It hasn't snowed in Tampa since Jan 19, 1977.
I want to address the hydrologic conditions across New England. According to the latest Palmer drought index, all of VT/NH are normal with precip. Maine, Eastern MA, RI, Southern CT are abnormally dry while Central and Western MA as well as northern CT are in moderate drought. The good news though is this is all mainly a surface condition as the Soil Moisture maps which account for layers below the surface show normal in the moderately dry areas and above normal the rest of New England. With the addition of cooler air and High pressure Deaner is dead on, not much rain in sight after Today, save Saturdays frontal passage. while the last week of the month heat will try and return, it will not be as harsh as what we have. Why? El nino is taking over. The warm waters are moving from Eastern equatorial Pacific to the Central equatorial Pacific. The state of the rest of the Pacific (cold) and the warm Atlantic favor hot summers. As the El Nino matures and cold builds we will see increasing cooler shots of air, first to the Plains and Lakes and later in the winter the Northeast. So what does all this mean for the foliage. Well i expect temperatures in the Northeast to average near normal, but keep in mind this is significantly cooler than the last few autumns. Foliage instead of late is likely to be on time, which will seem early. With no excess rain like last year, (thanks Irene) and no significant drought, trees should not be significantly stressed, so the ingredients look to be there for a spectacular foliage season!

[ctyanky]

We have been inundated with storm after storm after storm here all summer in all sections of CT. Today we had two storms. I've had a bellyful of lightning, thunder and tropical downpours and my back yard has seen enough ponding! I can't imagine a drought at all here. Carol and I are radar buddies and I let her know when my radar has passed and heading into Bahston! It's really a riot! Most of the summer, I have been raising and lowering the windows on a regular basis when the storms hit, but tonight, this incredible cool air filtered in after this last storm. I could have had a sweatshirt on out there! It's supposed to be so cool this weekend and as WXMAN has indicated, a touch of Autumn will be in the air. More and more trees dulling around here and the canopies are full and beautiful and ready for a great foliage season!

This weekend will be perfect for a craft fair and Carol, I hope it doesn't rain on your parade (he he). I think there is a parade at the fair you are attending in the NEK this weekend? I'm so looking forward to your post and photos!

I just think I may start packing. Sigh.

P.S. I forgot to add this very nice weather blog from my favorite VT forecaster for the Burlington Free Press, Mat Sutkoski. I thought it was well written!

http://blogs.burlingtonfreepress.com/we ... mmers-end/

[WXMAN76]

Good afternoon all. I want to update a few important things over the next 2-3 weeks. First of all enjoy the cool air. tonights lows in the NEK and Great North Woods of NH (Berlin north) will only be around 40 with valley fog. BRRRR. Reinforcing shot of cool air mid week. Heat returns after that but not boiler plate. Between AUGUST 28 AND SEPTEMBER 10 the WHOLE EAST COAST NEEDS TO BE ON HIGH ALERT!! 2 tropical waves have just come off Africa and are 10-14 days from the East coast. Unlike the season so far we have a burst of 3 weeks of full fledged tropical development before a shut down in mid September. Both the US and European models are trying to bring a hurricane to the East Coast. This looks highly probable because if you look at the weather pattern in 10 days it is very similar to August 54 and September 55 when 2 hurricanes hit New England and a third was a near miss. The pattern is ripe for a hit, but can we get a hurricane in the right spot at the right time? that is athe big question. Right Now it is too soon the predict but the most likely spots for a hit is the Carolinas or The Canadian Maritimes but nobody from Key West to PEI should ignore this pattern. Once Isaac actually forms we can narrow down the path, until then we just need to be vigilant. For now no need for anyone to get too excited (except us weather nuts). There are many possibilities but climatology tells us with this pattern, and storms in that position something should hit the east coast.
Beyond Isaac a much stronger cooldown is expected. Then mild in September trending below normal into the Month of October.
Will keep all posted!

[ctyanky]

uh oh WXMAN: You are scaring me. I hope this doesn't occur. But you have been right on lately it seems. Guess we'l have to wait and see. We had a horrendous lightning and thunder storm again last night with torrential rains. I don't do well in these kinds of storms. I'm very afraid of lightning. It felt like it was over my house! What a summer here in New England and CT has been hit especially hard.

Thanks though, for the very detailed report, albeit ominous!

[ctyanky]

55 degrees this a.m.! geese flying overhead! sweatshirt weather! awesome autumn weather!

[WXMAN76]

Good afternoon all. Thanks for the report this morning CT. Coldest I found last night was a low of 37 in Sutton and Averhill VT, so we did in fact get a couple of high 30's. That should help get things rolling! Lots of low 40's too. The national hurricane center has a high risk of development of a wave in the Atlantic that should become Isaac. Today's models have backed off on development but until this thing gets going the models will continue to be all over the place. Looking at the upper level pattern 1954 shows up 3 times again today in the analog dates. This is similar to the pattern that begat a direct hit, hurricane Carol and hit to the cape a few days later with Edna. This is one reason I am concerned with the pattern. Also the pattern this year is in close development. I don;t expect this storm to really get cranking until it gets close to the US. So while we can track it for a long time it's going to not be terribly exciting but once it closes in on the US it has a chance to rapidly deepen, so what could be perceived as a minor threat could suddenly become much worse. Those are the reasons i had such a strong warning yesterday. it's not that I wanted to sound ominous, and not trying to scare anyone but I want people to understand is that hey we need to keep an eye on this stuff, just because it has been a relatively dead season, something big can happen. 1954 and 1955 (diane) were low activity years with big storms for the east coast.. For the weather nuts out there the MJO is in phase 2. The PNA is positive and the NAO are negative, all are favorable for development! Those are some teleconnection indexes we use to help gauge what will happen. So enjoy the cool air, another chilly night tonight coming up, but summer will make a come back later in the week and next week ahead of what Isaac may do, but a strong cold front will arrive after Isaac with a cooler airmass than this one after Labor Day.

[WXMAN76]

Thanks for the report Abby! Glad you got to enjoy some Autumn. This mornings data shows 39 in Sutton VT and Saranac Lake NY!
That will get the show going! Milder night tonight but Again Wed and Thur AM we will see lows near 40 in the North Country then the warmup comes. Also remember a week from Saturday is Sept 1 the start of Meteorological Autumn!!!!

[bvahjen]

WXMAN, love your forecasts!! I almost went into meteorology as a major. Did Geology instead (long story). Things are looking good for a good fall for those of us who look forward to this all year. I hope a hurricane does not muck it all up, but if it is early Sept, we will be OK. Got to go out and start the generator just in case...