Predictions of "How Good"?

[faxmachineanthem]

WXMAN,
I remember your posts last year were spot on about the weather. Can tropical storms cause significant leaf drop before September? I'd like to wait another week or two before beginning my annual weather-worrying.

Looks like Vermont, like much of the northeast, has recieved quite a bit of rain that past 10 days or so. Good news because it was showing as dry on the drought monitor.

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/pics/northeast_dm.png

[WXMAN76]

Thank you for the compliment! Well there certainly will be less canopy damage in August as opposed to later in September when the trees are in the process of shutting down. With healthy canopies this year I expect less damage than if the trees were stressed. The real question here is how strong will the winds be? The stronger the winds the heavier the damage, but it's exponential, so if you double the winds lets say from 35 to 70 the damage doesn't double, it quadruples. A wind 10x stronger causes 100x the damage.

As of this morning Irene is indeed a Cat 1 (out of 5) hurricane. She is expected to hit NC as a category 3 or possibly 4. Then it looks like she will cross the Carolina, exit back into the Atlantic and make a second landfall over Southeastern new England, potentially as a hurricane. This may be the first direct hit on New England shores since Bob in 1991. Still thing SE New England will bear the brunt of the storm, but heavy rainfall is likely in the North. This Shouldn't cut up through the heart of New England like Gloria did in 1985. But we will have to wait and see, but Everybody from Miami to Maine should keep an eye (no pun intended ) on Irene