Vermont Foliage Weather Thread

[WXMAN76]

Welcome to the thread. I will post updated forecasts here for the foliage season. I have a BS in meteorology from Lyndon State.

Discussion: The upper level low which has caused instability showers of rain and snow will slowly move out today. Weak high pressure will build in before
the next storm cuts up into the Great Lakes on Saturday. this will drag a slow moving cold front through the area this weekend. Warm moist air ahead of the front will provide rainfall, although at this time the heaviest appears to be across NH and ME. High pressure builds in for Monday with the next storm on it's heals for Midweek.

Today: Plenty of clouds, with a brief shower possible. Highs 54-58. Light Winds

Tonight: Mostly cloudy and chilly. Lows 34-38.

Friday: Times of sun and clouds. Cool. High 52-56.

Friday night: Becoming cloudy with rain arriving late. Lows 40-44.

Saturday Cloudy and milder with periods of rain and drizzle. High 60-64.

Sunday: Morning showers East, otherwise Cloudy with breaks of sun developing from West to East. Highs 62-66.

Monday: Partly to mostly sunny and pleasant. Highs 62-66

Tuesday: increasing clouds, showers possible late. High 60-64.

Enjoy!

[ixl]

Thanks WXMAN.

I know it's early but any guesses at cloud cover for Sunday night or Monday night, in the greater Champlain Valley?

[faxmachineanthem]

Thanks for the report. It sounds like no serious downpours? A little rain never hurt anybody. I think the report is a little better than it had sounded a couple days ago. At least we could get some decent weather Monday/Tuesday.

[ixl]

Well, based on the models I am looking at, I do think some areas will get quite a shellacking on Saturday into Saturday night. But where and how much, who knows.

[faxmachineanthem]

Is there any direction to go that might miss the brunt of the storm on Saturday? Or is this a pretty big storm?

[WXMAN76]

Thanks for reading my forecast. Let's see what I can do for answers.

1. Cloud cover in the Champlain Valley Sunday and Monday night. Sunday night looks to be decreasing clouds overall I would say partly cloudy. Monday night should be mainly clear in the Champlain Valley, perhaps some high clouds very late at night.

2. I agree there will be some heavy rain nearby on Sat/Sat night. I've been watching the models over the past several days and I have noticed that with each model run coming in the precip is less intense and the bulk of it will be farther east. I am a little concerned that the NEK will catch the heavier rain, but if the model trend continues it would pass east, which is my interpretation of the models.

3. If you want to escape the heaviest rain and see the most sunshine head west! The champlain valley will get the least rain and the most sun, but unfortunatley the color isn't there yet.

Thanks again for reading my thread, keep the questions coming, I will do my best to keep you all updated!

Happy Leaf Peeping!


Happy

[rk]

hi WXMAN76

I have a trip planned for White Mountain region in NH for htis weekend. October 3 and 4(saturday and sunday)

Shall I change the dates to Sunday and Monday(Ocotber 4, 5).

Please advise.

Regards,
rK.

[ixl]

Pretty much the whole northeast.

Thanks for the reply, WXMAN. I was just looking at the 12z NAM and it shows the bulk of the rain in the western part of Vermont, actually... I think the exact location of the "bullseye" is going to change from run to run until we get closer.

[lirwin13]

Thanks for the weather update. I, too, will be staying in the White Mountains this weekend and am hoping the whole weekend won't be a washout. Hoping to head to the NEK on Saturday. Since it is now too late to change my hotel reservations, it's good to know there is some hope for the weekend!

[WXMAN76]

RK It's up to you whether to change your plans. If you want sunshine thans Sunday and Monday would be best, If you would like to experiment with photography in the clouds and rain, which can come out wonderful, stay on your current plans. Either way the foliage should be wonderful. Personally I will be up in the Whites Sunday or Monday, perhaps both days if I can swing it.

ixl - I saw the 12z nam. I am leaning towards the gfs. The nam has a problem with convective feedback. Looking at the dynamics both models show it weakening with time, so I am concerned the nam is overdone. I am thinking healthy rain nonetheless probably .75 - 1.00" on Saturday

[Boonlong]

Hi WXMAN76,

I've planned my trip later than I should have; we'll arrive in Vermont on October 11. I've made some plans for Putney, Newfane, Lake St. Catherine, and Arlington/Battenkill river. From what you see now, do you think I'm correct in thinking that the color will be good in those places at that time? Or will we be too late for the whole state?

Thanks,
Robert

[faxmachineanthem]

boonlong,
I gather there should be plenty of color in the southern part of the state and the Champlain valley at that time.

[ixl]

There will be plenty of color in the southern part of the state then, no worries.

We are on target for peak color here in the Bennington area the 20th to the 25th as usual.

[ixl]

WXMAN, any thoughts on Sunday-Tuesday versus Thursday-Saturday this week weather-wise? Thanks.

[rk]

Thanks WXMAN76

I have changed my plans to Sunday and Monday.

I hope at least one of the day will be sunny.

Thanks a lot for starting this thread . Really helped me make plans.