Predictions of "How Good"?

[Rockwall Tim]

Well, I'm sitting here in Texas, suffering from summer cabin fever. The temperature has been 105+ for 15 straight days. Has not rained since June. Sooooo, I'm thinking about my Vermont trip. And so the critical question looms: have the conditions so far this summer in Vermont been conducive to a great color season? I'm well aware that September storms can change things, but I'm going to pray about that.

[ctyanky]

Hi Tim! I can't imagine how one is able to withstand 15 days of over 105! And no rain since June??? We had one Friday in July that was 103 and I thought of our Texas friends having to deal with endless days of hotter than that! I would rather have below zero than experience that kind of heat! I hope it has subsided for you!

I am only 2 hours from Vermont and although I can only speak of the summer here in Northern CT, it mirrors much of New England and points north. We have had a lot of rain as well as storm after storm. Even though July seemed hot (with that one killer day ) the mornings oddly enough have been on the cool side. We were up in the mountains near the NY border yesterday and my friend said, "I felt that kiss of fall this morning." And it was true. The air felt and smelled differently. Some of the leaves on the trees in the higher elevations are dulling and some very tips are turning. This is typical of mid-August. The tree canopies are full and very healthy and we do not have any drought whatsover. Things so far, are looking good and "normal".

Honestly, my own opinion is that it is not wise to predict the season yet, as August here in New England can be brutal with high temps (not like in Texas thank goodness) and lack of rain. I would say the best time to have some sort of feeling on the foliage outlook would be soon after Labor Day. Vermonters would have a better idea of how things are going up there as the first state report usually comes out around September 14th or 15th.

Rain is good! We are having a lot of it this week. That takes us through mid-August. Personally, I am having a very good feeling on the upcoming season. Wind is not good. Not good at all. So pray you must, that we don't get any strong winds beginning in mid-September and onward!

We will keep you posted here in a few weeks and hopefully our dear Weatherman will reappear!

[Rockwall Tim]

So I guess the best we can say is, "So far, so good", eh?

Meanwhile, here in the Dallas area, looks like today's high will be around 104. Tomorrow's high will be in the 105-110 range. All of the grassy medians are yellow-brown, the grass embankments along the freeways are totally dead. Trees are beginning to show signs of stress. And so are the people. It begins to mess with your mind when just stepping outside means dealing with heat of this magnitude. Our prayers are with the farmers and ranchers of the state...their situation is hopeless. Texas has more wind farms than any other state, but even that isn't working out because winds are pretty much calm. It's sad to pray for a hurricane but that's how dire our plight is.

[pwt54]

We had a wet spring and early summer, but it has been very dry since July. I'm not seeing any foliage changes right now. The weatherfolks are saying we need some rain. Taking that all in, plus the size of the blackberries I picked yesterday, I'm guessing that the foliage season will be normal, but the colors will be more intense. Of course, this is from someone who considers Beans and Franks at the Wayside Restuarant a gourmet meal.

[ctyanky]

Tim: wish we could send some of our rain and cool weather your way. I feel bad for those ranchers and farmers too. And you folks as well!

We had a monsoon-like rain last evening (looked like southern VT got rain too) and the new forecast is for waking up to 50 degrees this Friday and Saturday morning with late summer temperatures all next week! So the pull of the fall season is approaching for sure.

[Utah Baker]

My guess is that it will be a spectucular season, just because I won't be there this year. Dang it! I can only hope for a similar season in Virginia. Here in Utah we had record snow depths in the mountains, a really wet spring, and a wetter and cooler summer, so far only reaching 100 once. We just had a lovely week of low 90's and 60's at night, with thunderstorms back in the forcast for the weekend. I too wish I could sent some to Texas. We took a drive a week ago to my son's who lives in the Heber Valley, and the good thing is with so much water this year the mountains and trees look incredible, green and full of leaves. With any luck we may get a very "Vermonty" autumn here before we head to Virginia in mid Oct.

[wentworth]

so far so good--rainfall has been perfectly normal which is always good news--The enemy of Fall colors is drought(like in 1999)--a lot of rain falling in Vermont today also--Now, let's hope for the next month, the rainfall is near normal, and that in Sept, the temperatures turn normally cold in the middle of the month--last year, the last week of September, Killington colors were fantastic, as they were also along Rt 232 on the way to Owl's Peak--and the long hike up Spruce Mtn was worth it, as the view was spectacular--2009 was beautiful in Killington and more widespread areas also, as was 2008--Vermont is on a roll!

[pwt54]

We are in our second day of soaking rain. This should help the foliage. It's been so dry the last month and a half folks up here have been worried. They were worried that we would have an early season. I wasn't worried, however, because the blackberries I picked last week were fat and juicy. That means there is still plenty of moisture in the ground.

[ctyanky]

We have had tons of rain here. More coming Friday and Saturday and predictions for a few soaking rains next week. The nights/mornings are now cool and the AC's are off to let in that amazing air! Things are looking good. I'm sure we have another heat wave in store end August/early September but that's a given here in New England!

Phil: Glad your blueberry picking season went well!

[ixl]

My honest opinion is that predications made this early are of little value. The single most important factor in good foliage is cold weather in September, as far as I can tell.

[wentworth]

yes, temperatures are very important--its ok to have a heat wave the first week of Sept but not after that--in 2007, the drought and the exceptionally warm temps for the whole month of Sept ruined the colors in the NEK that year--but the last 3 years, Mother Nature has blessed Vermont with perfectly normal temps from about Sept 10th on(meaning several mornings in the 30's)--if this trend continues, then it should be another beautiful year!

[Rockwall Tim]

OK, it looks like there will be an east coast hurricane, Irene, which will probably hit South Carolina, go inland and then curve NE. I would this system, after it's downgraded to a tropical depression, will dump tons of rain on New England.

Should this impact this year's foliage for better or worse?

[ctyanky]

Hi Tim: we have been inundated with copious amounts of rain in the NE today. Especially western CT, western MA and most of VT and NH and Maine. Lots of storms! As far as the hurricane prediction, I don't see how it will impact our foliage "yet". The leaves on the trees are very healthy, strong and lush, and if wind does arrive with Irene, it can't be as detrimental as if it had arrived in September/October timeframe. A hurricane up the east coast and into the interior with high winds in mid-September through mid-October would be a killer to the foliage. We seem to be in the normal range for precipitation especially after today! More rain coming this weekend..... Don't worry!

I hope things are looking up in Texas. I have been following it.

[Rockwall Tim]

CTYankee: We in Texas are clinging to a prediction that the entire pattern over Texas will change around Sept. 1, ushering in cooler air and hopefully rain. Yesterday, the usually reliable temperature on my car thermometer registered 111 on an afternoon trip. This evening, I walked across the pasture next to our house and saw cracks I easily lower my shoe into. It's sad.

I'll be fervently watching Vermont weather, too, hoping for cold air...and no harm from passing girls named Irene.

[WXMAN76]

Well here in coastal Mass I am still mowing my lawn on a 7-10 day cycle, my tomato plants have taken over the entire garden, my highest this summer was 103. but fall must be here my pumpkins are ripening! Over the last week or so I have notice TUS (the usual suspects) have started to show their colors as they are the first to turn every year. Colors so far seem on the bright side, and not very much if any at all early leaf drop from stress.

Well there is good news and bad. Good news is this is another La nina year coming on. La nina years are great for bringing down early cool shots in September then warming periods. Looks like first significant cool shot to the Plains around Sep 3-4 then heading eastward after that. Also looks like a good winter for snow and cold lovers! Bad news is east coast is open for business this hurricane season. Now TS Irene will likely be a hurricane by monday. She will likely strike SC, possibly NC in a few days as a major hurricane but guidance suggest she will take an inland route to NJ then off Atlantic City then Cape Cod as a depression around next monday. While all this rain is Great for foliage, the wet ground makes it easier for high winds to knock down trees and we will have to watch where Irene goes but right now think East CT/RI/East MA/SE VT/ SO NH/ SW ME will bear the brunt sparing the mountains. Lets hope!! Will keep everyone posted!