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Wretched Rain Event Sat - low wind - how will leaves fare???

Posted: Wed Oct 01, 2014 6:31 pm
by ctyanky
I'm not liking Saturday's forecast. It does mention heavy rain but not wind yet so expect leaf drop further north ... but the trees still holding healthy leaves that are basically turning should be ok. Wind is the true enemy! I hoping for the best because now I'm not back up to VT till the holiday weekend and Mt. Greylock will be socked in Saturday for sure. :(

The only problem I see, at least down here in northern CT is that the extremely dry weather lately has rendered some leaf drop already, as we just had a soaking rain the entire day. There are leaves everywhere with the very slight breezes we had.

Hope you have a backup plan for Saturday if you are in Vermont. There are plenty of fun things to do! Country stores, museums, even driving around in rain can be ok as the colors really pop out! Ok, I am trying to be optimistic! Keep your fingers crossed that Mother Nature made a big mistake in the forecast!

I'm curious as to what our locals up there think as we are just about two days out from the forecast..... I'm holding my breath for my Columbus Day rendezvous for the season! :?

Re: Wretched Rain Event Sat - low wind - how will leaves far

Posted: Wed Oct 01, 2014 8:15 pm
by bm
Champlain Valley will be OK since we still have early color.

Re: Wretched Rain Event Sat - low wind - how will leaves far

Posted: Wed Oct 01, 2014 9:39 pm
by wxman1976
Well CT, looks like about .50 inches of rain with locally higher amounts. The big question is how fast the low along the coast deepens as the main low will be centered back across the Great Lakes. With regards to winds on Saturday there will be one low in the mid atlantic and one in the great lakes. This leaves precious little difference in pressures, hence less winds, so winds should be light, except some higher gusts with the front itself, mainly affecting the higher elevations. Sunday won't be a prefect day but VT should me nicely in the dry slot The main low remains anchored in the Great Lakes and the second low near Halifax NS. This isn't looking like a big wind event at all. So there is hope yet!

Re: Wretched Rain Event Sat - low wind - how will leaves far

Posted: Thu Oct 02, 2014 6:30 am
by ixl
As I say every year, the impact of rain on foliage is generally overestimated.

The #1 killer is wind. Hard freezes are #2. Rain is a distant third unless accompanied by heavy wind.

Re: Wretched Rain Event Sat - low wind - how will leaves far

Posted: Thu Oct 02, 2014 6:37 am
by bm
wxman-can you time the storm out yet? As in....what time will the rain begin in the northern half of VT?

Re: Wretched Rain Event Sat - low wind - how will leaves far

Posted: Thu Oct 02, 2014 9:51 am
by wxman1976
BM I am thinking around daybreak till late evening, so just about all the daylight hours. Still could see a sprinkle or two Sunday but generally dry. Some really good news is that the models are trending towards a less windy even, especially over the NEK as the main energy stays to the West and North. Could be some heavy downpours with the frontal passage Saturday night but mostly a light rain event. .5 inch to as much as an inch in locally higher amounts over a 12 or so hour period only yield less than a tenth of an inch per hour so. An upper level low will linger through much of next week. While we will see highs in the NEK mid 50 and lows in the upper 30s, it may not be a very sunny week, but the midweek frontal passage looks weak with just a few showers later Tuesday and into Wednesday. Still to early to tell if we will see the eclipse early Wednesday morning or not,

Re: Wretched Rain Event Sat - low wind - how will leaves far

Posted: Thu Oct 02, 2014 11:51 am
by ctyanky
Well, let's just "wait and see" what the weekend actually brings. I feel hopeful. 8)

Our rain has departed finally in Southern New England, the sun is out and ohhhhh does that cool air feel great! Fall is back! :D

Re: Wretched Rain Event Sat - low wind - how will leaves far

Posted: Sat Oct 04, 2014 6:40 am
by ixl
I'm sorry to report that at least here in Bennington, the wind basically howled all night. If this happened anywhere with peak foliage, much of it is now likely on the ground.

Re: Wretched Rain Event Sat - low wind - how will leaves far

Posted: Sat Oct 04, 2014 7:19 pm
by From_the_NEK
It' raining a lot here this evening. However, there is no wind so far. Even though we are past peak here, I was able to get a few shots that I liked. The big grand colorful vistas are done but concentrating on isolated trees and pockets of color can be rewarding.

All three of these shots are from this morning on Pudding Hill in Lyndon/Sutton.

ImageOldCoachRoad by Tim_NEK, on Flickr

Image

Image

Re: Wretched Rain Event Sat - low wind - how will leaves far

Posted: Sat Oct 04, 2014 7:42 pm
by ctyanky
It rained lightly for most of the day here in northern CT. No wind or breezes at all!

The moon and stars are out - the sky is chrystal clear! Tomorrow is another day, the sun will shine and there will be more colors to find - just like NEK has, to make everyone smile again! :wink: Nice post NEK and thank you!!!!!!

POSTIVE ATTITUDES ARE CONTAGIOUS! :D

Re: Wretched Rain Event Sat - low wind - how will leaves far

Posted: Sat Oct 04, 2014 9:41 pm
by ixl
The wind stopped this morning when the rain came. So that's good.

I really hope the trees are still in the "mood" to change with this warm weather. It will be cooler tonight but... we still haven't had a freeze and the current forecast is that we may not get one right through the end of October! Truly bizarre.

I'm still a week out from a trip if I can take one at all and at this point -- no clue about where to even try to find any color!

Re: Wretched Rain Event Sat - low wind - how will leaves far

Posted: Sun Oct 05, 2014 6:28 am
by ctyanky
A stunning day today! I hope everyone in VT gets to find some wonderful color under these blue skies! Brrrr! It is chilly out there! Enjoy!

Charles: I know you will find a way to enjoy the rest of the autumn season! I also read that a hard freeze will be "hard" to come by in the next couple of weeks. I'm sure the trees are patiently waiting too! :lol:

You'll have to join me then in the NW hills - I'm going on a tour today to check it all out! We are just starting our season here and it looks to be a great one! :D

Re: Wretched Rain Event Sat - low wind - how will leaves far

Posted: Mon Oct 06, 2014 10:58 pm
by Fallleafechidna
ixl wrote:I'm sorry to report that at least here in Bennington, the wind basically howled all night. If this happened anywhere with peak foliage, much of it is now likely on the ground.
It seems to have done little to no damage though, as I was in Bennington the 5th and so no leaf drop at all, in the town center many trees were still largely green even. The ramp onto 7 north though had a max peak utterly beyond belief radioactive patch though and just a couple miles north on 7 that the whole west side of the Green Mtn looks good, no leaf drop, all the reds there to the very tops. The east side did seem to have a LOT of leaf drop, either past peak and dropped or dried and shrively.

Re: Wretched Rain Event Sat - low wind - how will leaves far

Posted: Tue Oct 07, 2014 5:24 am
by ctyanky
I was on route 7 north going into Williamstown MA and just south of Pownal last Friday. Amazing colors and peak. The whole area was getting ready to pop. Adams and North Adams were gorgeous.

We had quite a bit of wind gusts and breezy here in northern CT yesterday but since we are still at mid stage the leaves were not affected at all. I was getting a bit worried! I'm praying Columbus Day Weekend is going to be ok. I have 3 fall festivals in CT and a trip to Newfane Sunday (hopefully). :wink:

Re: Wretched Rain Event Sat - low wind - how will leaves far

Posted: Tue Oct 07, 2014 6:28 pm
by ixl
Fallleafechidna wrote: It seems to have done little to no damage though, as I was in Bennington the 5th and so no leaf drop at all, in the town center many trees were still largely green even. The ramp onto 7 north though had a max peak utterly beyond belief radioactive patch though and just a couple miles north on 7 that the whole west side of the Green Mtn looks good, no leaf drop, all the reds there to the very tops. The east side did seem to have a LOT of leaf drop, either past peak and dropped or dried and shrively.
Maybe it depends on where you are, but here in North Bennington the "split season" I predicted is happening. About 1/3 of the trees changed early and are now mostly bare, and 90% of what is left is green or green/yellow. This will not be a good year for foliage in this area (at least by my standards).